Competing Atlantic and Pacific predictions bring “a level of uncertainty,” expert warns
Acrisure Re, the reinsurance division of Acrisure, has recently released its 2023 Pre-Season Hurricane Outlook report. This report offers insights into the upcoming hurricane season, presenting a forecast that indicates a season of average intensity but with notable uncertainty due to a combination of favorable and unfavorable conditions.
According to the report, the forecasted Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) is anticipated to be warmer than the previous year, particularly in the Main Development Region (MDR), implying a potential increase in hurricane activity across the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico regions. Conversely, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is predicted to be in a moderate to strong El Niño phase, which could result in strong vertical wind shear and suppressed hurricane activity.
“Our statistical and dynamic models, as well as our review of key variables, suggest a near-average hurricane season for 2023,” said Ming Li, global head of catastrophe modeling at Acrisure Re. “However, despite the forecast, the hurricane season can be defined by one storm. There is a level of uncertainty given the competing nature of the predicted Atlantic and Pacific SST conditions, the rate of development of El Niño, and the recent lack of forecast verification for Atlantic SSTs.”
“After an extended period of above-average hurricane season predictions, it is somewhat relieving to observe the conditions returning closer to normal,” said Simon Headley, CEO of Acrisure Re. “However, uncertainty remains higher than usual, and there is still a possibility of a below or above-average hurricane season. Our expert analytics team will continue to monitor the models diligently, enabling our brokers to provide clients with informed advice regarding property coverage.”
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